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Bitcoin’s market cycle echoes past rallies: Will history repeat in Q4?

SCRYPTO MAGAZINE by SCRYPTO MAGAZINE
September 23, 2025
in Bitcoin
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Bitcoin’s market cycle echoes past rallies: Will history repeat in Q4?
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Key Takeaways 

Why does Bitcoin’s MVRV Ratio matter?

BTC’s MVRV Ratio at 2.1 signifies a pre-euphoria zone, traditionally adopted by parabolic rallies and renewed market conviction.

What alerts favor Bitcoin’s bullish case?

NVT Ratio at 759, Inventory-to-Movement spike to 426, and constructive Funding Charges collectively assist Bitcoin’s subsequent potential rally.


Bitcoin’s [BTC] latest value swings have reignited discussions about its market cycle, with buyers monitoring on-chain and Derivatives alerts for readability.

The MVRV Ratio sat close to 2.1, a zone that traditionally preceded parabolic rallies. That sign pointed to a pre-euphoria stage.

Even so, short-term volatility didn’t shake accumulation habits, as merchants stayed assured in Bitcoin’s longer-term path.

On high of that, positioning and valuation information nonetheless backed the case for increased costs, regardless of sentiment checks in latest weeks.

Supply: CryptoQuant

Can the NVT’s surge redefine Bitcoin’s valuation?

The Community Worth to Transactions (NVT) Ratio spiked sharply to 759. That meant Bitcoin’s market worth outpaced its transaction quantity.

Traditionally, such surges have signaled investor confidence in holding BTC, as value appreciation outpaces community exercise. 

In contrast, elevated NVT can even warn of overvaluation. But circulation progress recommended stability round this metric.

That shift arrange the case for stronger rallies, with sustained NVT highs typically marking renewed conviction.

Supply: Santiment

Inventory-to-Movement bounce reveals tightening provide

Bitcoin’s Inventory-to-Movement Ratio, which compares circulating provide towards new issuance, surged considerably to 426, pointing to tightening provide dynamics. 

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Spikes on this metric usually precede main upward strikes, as shortage strengthens Bitcoin’s funding enchantment. 

In truth, the present trajectory echoed earlier cycles, the place rising shortage fueled accelerated rallies.

That transfer aligned with long-term holder confidence, reducing promote strain and reinforcing Bitcoin’s scarce-asset narrative.

Supply: Santiment

Funding information reveal merchants are nonetheless leaning bullish

Binance Funding Charges principally stayed constructive, confirming merchants’ tilt towards leveraged longs.

Sustained constructive charges point out market contributors are prepared to pay premiums to carry leveraged longs, highlighting robust speculative demand. 

Nevertheless, occasional unfavorable dips flushed weaker arms, a reminder that corrections nonetheless pruned the market. Even so, persistent constructive funding underscored confidence in bullish continuation.

Supply: Santiment

Are these alerts paving the way in which for one more rally?

Bitcoin’s NVT, Inventory-to-Movement, and Funding Fee tendencies all align to color a bullish image. 

With valuation increasing, provide tightening, and leverage demand intact, the proof favors upward continuation. 

If historical past repeats, these alerts could kind the groundwork for Bitcoin’s subsequent main rally.

Earlier: Bolivia sees first Toyota purchase with USDT as crypto adoption surges
Subsequent: Changpeng Zhao’s YZi Labs ‘deepens’ Ethena bet – What it means for ENA



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