Key Takeaways
Might the FOMC change the sport?
Dovish vibes look priced in, and macro flows into ETFs, treasuries, and AI are nonetheless capping Bitcoin.
Why is Bitcoin lagging tech and alts?
As a result of threat capital is rotating into equities and altcoins, with Nasdaq at ATH and SOL tripling BTC’s ROI.
The U.S. stock market is buzzing.
The S&P500 index has surged by almost 32% off its April low. In the meantime, the Nasdaq Composite Index rallied by 50% to hit a brand new all-time excessive. Quite the opposite, Bitcoin’s [BTC] worth dropped by 38% on the worth charts.
As anticipated, this divergence is now displaying up on-chain. In reality, the BTC–Nasdaq correlation flipped unfavourable to -0.14 at press time – Marking its lowest degree since September 2024. Merely put, which means that Bitcoin could also be beginning to lag tech.
Supply: CryptoQuant
In accordance with AMBCrypto, such a decoupling is an indication of threat capital rotating into equities. With the FOMC lower than 48 hours out and 96% odds of a 400–425 bps minimize, merchants could also be clearly front-running a bullish setup in U.S shares.
On the weekly, the Nasdaq blasted to an ATH, whereas BTC appeared to be caught 7% beneath its $124k ATH. As David Hernandez from 21Shares informed AMBCrypto, it’s a transparent sign that risk-seeking buyers are trying past Bitcoin.
“With macro uncertainty earlier than subsequent week largely out of the way in which, all eyes are on Chair Powell and the Fed, the place a price minimize and dovish ahead steering may catapult Bitcoin again to $118K-$120K. The speed minimize opens the door for risk-seeking buyers to look past Bitcoin too – to tokens like Solana and XRP, whose ETFs are extremely anticipated to debut this fall.”
Bitcoin faces headwinds from various asset flows
Altcoins are clearly giving Bitcoin a run for its cash this cycle.
On 8 September, TOTAL2 (ex-BTC market cap) topped $1.74 trillion, grabbing 45.8% of the market share. What’s extra, the Altcoin Season Index ripped to 80 – Its highest degree because the election run.
Supporting this transfer, the SOL/BTC ratio jumped by 10.5% in a month, with Solana [SOL] spiking by almost 3x vs BTC’s 6% ROI. Including firepower, 16 treasuries now maintain 10.29 million SOL, conserving capital locked in alt momentum.
Supply: TradingView (SOL/BTC)
Briefly, Bitcoin’s post-FOMC dovish vibes is perhaps getting forward of themselves.
The cycle’s shifted, with risk-assets front-running flows and conserving BTC in examine. ETFs, treasuries, and AI hype are among the macro performs sucking up capital, one thing even David Hernandez from 21Shares flagged.
“Momentum within the broader digital asset market has additionally picked up. Ethereum and Solana have seen sizeable features lately, largely pushed by a wave of bulletins from Digital Asset Treasury Corporations (“DATcos”) planning to carry main cryptocurrencies on their steadiness sheets – a growth reviving institutional curiosity.”
