Key Takeaways
BTC is combating weak ETF inflows and macro headwinds. Eric Trump’s “dip” name echoes halving-year rallies however lacks sturdy affirmation, making it a dangerous wager.
Eric Trump simply instructed followers to “buy the dip,” however ought to anybody actually be paying consideration?
Timing-wise, it’s attention-grabbing. His name lands proper as Bitcoin [BTC] nukes beneath the $117k-$120k chop zone, printing a clear 3.76% drawdown during the last three day by day candles.
However zoom out to the month-to-month chart, and August’s hit fee isn’t nice.
A dropping month with uncommon outliers
BTC’s been purple in 60% of the final 12 Augusts. It’s sometimes a post-runoff month, usually fading July’s power as bid depth thins out throughout majors.
Supply: CoinGlass
That stated, one key divergence stands out on nearer inspection.
In 2013, 2017, and 2021, BTC ripped double-digit features in August. The frequent thread? All have been post-halving years.
Supply: Glassnode
These are cycles the place Issuance fell 50%, and supply-side overhangs skinny out.
Structurally, meaning much less BTC hitting the tape at a time when danger urge for food usually rotates again in. In that context, is Eric Trump’s name extra than simply hypothesis?
May BTC’s August mirror earlier halving years?
Traditionally, Eric Trump’s crypto calls have been hit and miss.
Working example: The twenty fifth of February. His tweet landed as BTC was base-building round $90k, and the worth squeezed 6.6% increased over the subsequent 4 classes.
However the transfer lacked follow-through. Momentum pale quick, and BTC reversed arduous, dumping $77k in a single week as cascading liquidations flushed hundreds of thousands in leveraged longs.
Supply: TradingView (BTC/USDT)
On high of that, BTC ETFs printed their worst quarterly outflows but, roughly $800 million out the door. That’s the most important bleed since February’s unwind, when outflows crossed $1 billion.
Macro’s not serving to both. In contrast to earlier cycles, this one’s clouded by tariff overhang, sticky labor prints, and 0 readability on a Fed pivot, dragging on general danger urge for food.
Consequently, $120k is shaping up as a neighborhood high. With weak inflows and macro pressure building, the standard post-halving August squeeze seems unlikely, making Eric Trump’s “purchase the dip” name a dangerous wager.
