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The value of Dogecoin continues to bleed, and crypto analyst Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA) warns that the worst should lie forward. Citing an earlier bearish sample, Kevin emphasised over the weekend that Dogecoin’s Head and Shoulders formation—recognized almost two weeks in the past—is quickly approaching its technical “measured transfer” goal. However he additionally made it clear that the complete draw back potential has not but performed out.
Dogecoin Collapse Far From Over?
“I didn’t say we’re there now,” Kevin clarified in a follow-up post, “the orange circle represents a zone of the place the measured transfer might go, with a exact measured transfer goal of the .786 fib at .119.”
This $0.119 stage aligns with a broader confluence of technical helps which might be rapidly turning into vital for DOGE’s construction. “The Head n Shoulders I identified on Dogecoin virtually a few weeks in the past is sort of at its measured transfer goal vary. Sure day by day indicators are additionally beginning to enter inciting ranges. Watching carefully together with BTC and USDT Dominance for additional confirmations,” he wrote.
Kevin additionally highlighted the significance of the weekly 200 Easy Shifting Common (SMA) and Exponential Shifting Common (EMA), together with the macro .382 Fibonacci retracement and a long-term descending trendline.
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Collectively, these ranges type what he described because the “must-hold” zone, particularly between $0.1434 and $0.1265. A sustained breakdown beneath that area would possible affirm a macro bearish shift for the meme asset.
What To Monitor Now
Zooming out, Kevin sees Dogecoin’s destiny as inseparably tied to Bitcoin and the broader altcoin market, which he describes as being in its weakest state in years. “Up to now 2025 has been extra bearish for altcoins than 2024 and 2023,” he famous. “Worst yr for Alts because the bear market in 2022.” The overwhelming power of Bitcoin’s dominance has been a key think about that pattern.
That dominance, Kevin argues, just isn’t a short lived spike. “Recent highs for BTC Dominance on the again of restrictive financial coverage and an unsure geopolitical surroundings,” he wrote, referring to international macro situations together with persistent quantitative tightening (QT). He has lengthy warned that with no pivot in central financial institution coverage, any discuss of a real “altseason” is untimely.
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“Been saying since late 2023, early 2024—when AI cash had been working loopy and other people had been saying it was #Altseason—that till QT ends and the terminal charge comes down, you’ll not see actual sustainable altcoin outperformance. That continues to carry true.”
His warning extends effectively past Dogecoin. In earlier posts, Kevin recognized key hazard zones for Bitcoin and Ethereum, which he argues should be reclaimed to forestall broader market deterioration. “So long as BTC can not break the $106.8K stage and present actual follow-through on 3D-1W time frames, then the market is in actual hazard,” he wrote. “Identical for ETH not having the ability to break the $2700-2800 stage.”
For Dogecoin merchants, the message is evident. The meme coin’s destiny rests not simply by itself technical well being, however on a wider macro and intermarket construction that continues to be fragile. So long as Bitcoin struggles to carry above key breakout ranges and US monetary conditions stay tight, the likelihood of a deeper Dogecoin correction stays excessive.
Whether or not DOGE can stabilize above the $0.1265 stage will likely be carefully watched by merchants within the days and weeks forward. A lack of that zone, particularly together with renewed Bitcoin weak point, might mark the start of a deeper and extra painful section for the once-beloved meme coin.
At press time, DOGE traded at $0.152.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
