The Dogecoin market construction has tightened round a single, extremely watched assist zone close to $0.138, and analyst Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA) is framing that space because the pivot that decides whether or not the meme coin’s broader bull case survives its present drawdown.
Is Dogecoin About To Break?
Sharing a weekly DOGE/USD chart on X, Kevin described the extent as a uncommon multi-factor confluence: “$0.138 cents on Dogecoin is a mix of the macro .382 Fib, the 200W SMA, and this upsloping trendline.” In his learn, the cluster of a macro Fibonacci retracement, the 200-week easy shifting common, and an ascending trendline rooted within the bear-market base and late-summer 2024 lows creates a assist shelf that’s not merely native, however structural to the cycle.
The chart he posted, timestamped Nov. 23, exhibits DOGE buying and selling across the mid-$0.14s after a steep weekly selloff, with value urgent straight into that circled confluence area. Notably, Kevin’s warning is much less about intraday volatility and extra about higher-timeframe acceptance beneath assist.
In an earlier put up he summarized the chance in blunt phrases: “$0.138 is very large assist on Dogecoin… you actually don’t wish to see that misplaced on 3D-1W closes.” The emphasis on three-day to one-week settlements displays his view that DOGE’s trendline and long-cycle averages matter provided that the market begins to shut decisively beneath them.
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On the chart, that $0.138 space sits just below present value and aligns with the purple 200-week SMA and the rising yellow trendline. Above, Kevin has additionally mapped a band of overhead provide across the high-$0.18s to ~$0.20, whereas a deeper horizontal assist line close to the mid-$0.09s marks the subsequent main draw back waypoint seen on his weekly framework.
His level is that the bull development continues to be technically intact so long as DOGE holds the rising base, however that the slope can flip quick if the market begins treating $0.138 as resistance as an alternative of assist.
The Macro Backdrop Wants To Align
Kevin explicitly situates DOGE’s destiny inside a wider liquidity and Bitcoin-led regime, somewhat than as an remoted meme-coin story. Within the Nov. 22 put up he wrote, “Clearly BTC’s efficiency would be the determiner to that end result so focus there first together with USDT D.
His longer macro observe expands that context by contrasting the current Bitcoin technical posture with the coverage and sentiment backdrops of earlier breakdowns. Kevin recalled that “In 2022 when BTC misplaced the 50W SMA and the 2D 200 ema/sma we additionally had been confronted with 4+% inflation that was headed to 9% on a freight practice, we had probably the most hawkish Fed in 40 years… together with quantitative tightening at a charge by no means seen earlier than.”
He additional described the psychological atmosphere then as “max euphoria the place for those who even hinted {that a} prime was in you’ll be ridiculed by the herd.” In opposition to that, he argued that the present cycle is sort of the mirror picture in macro phrases even when a few of the BTC chart indicators rhyme: “In 2025 you’ve gotten the identical technical setup on BTC by way of a lack of these key MA’s however by way of financial coverage, sentiment and the overall macroeconomic environment it’s utterly the other.”
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He listed the pivots he sees: “The Fed is ending QT… charges are getting nearer to impartial and can proceed to return down,” whereas “PMI’s have been contractionary for years however are more likely to begin increasing in 2026,” and “key inflation metrics are seeing decrease highs.” He additionally emphasised that this macro shift is going on alongside a sentiment excessive somewhat than a mania peak, saying, “we shaped a excessive in pure utter pessimism.”
That mix of technical fragility and macro easing is why Kevin thinks this part is unusually laborious to commerce and why singular confluence ranges acquire significance. As he put it, “This feels similar to 2019 by way of the macro atmosphere whereas the technical setup appears extra 2022.”
He known as the second “probably the most debatable/complicated time in historical past for the #Crypto markets,” including that whereas Bitcoin has been “very predictable this yr,” he doubts that persists: “I’ve a humorous feeling everyone seems to be in for a serious curveball over the subsequent 1.5 years… The 2011-2021 period is over. International economics and traits have been derailed put up covid.”
Inside that framing, Dogecoin’s $0.138 shelf turns into the type of degree the place the market decides which aspect of the 2019-style macro versus 2022-style technical rigidity is dominant. Kevin’s fast message to merchants, nonetheless, is less complicated than the macro philosophy behind it: the bull run “rests on” this zone as a result of it’s the first place the place DOGE’s long-cycle trendline, its 200-week imply, and its macro Fibonacci construction all agree.
At press time, DOGE traded at $0.146.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
