Key Takeaways
Is Bitcoin’s 2025 rally over?
Mid-This autumn, Bitcoin has misplaced momentum, with November erasing most quarterly beneficial properties and almost 99% of short-term holders underwater.
What’s the near-term danger for Bitcoin?
With 592k BTC in danger and weakening bid help, concern is dominating sentiment, setting the stage for a deeper This autumn correction.
Has Bitcoin’s [BTC] 2025 rally fallen aside?
Halfway via This autumn, and BTC is having its weakest fourth quarter since 2018, with a 15.13% internet loss. What’s extra, 74% of that drawdown got here in November, making it the second-worst month of 2025 after February.
So when it comes to returns, BTC has clearly misplaced momentum. November mainly worn out a lot of the quarter’s earlier beneficial properties, leaving HODLers underwater. In opposition to this backdrop, is “greed” set to override “FOMO” for the remainder of This autumn?
Bitcoin sits at a serious FOMO-Greed inflection level
Bitcoin is signaling a transparent shift towards a bear market construction.
From a technical standpoint, since topping out at $126k in early October, BTC has printed 4 decrease lows, and each try and flip resistance into help has failed, triggering repeated long-side liquidity sweeps.
The newest breakdown got here as BTC misplaced the $98k flooring. For context, following a 5.2% drop on the 14th of November, Bitcoin slid again to early-Might ranges, leaving almost 99% of STHs sitting on unrealized losses.
Supply: Glassnode
Briefly, Bitcoin’s capitulation danger is much from over.
Because it stands, BTC has worn out all of its prior cycle beneficial properties, November has cemented itself because the second-worst month of 2025, and 99% of STHs at the moment are underwater, leaving the cohort more and more uncovered to compelled promoting.
In opposition to that backdrop, a shift again towards FOMO is vital. Nonetheless, the query now’s whether or not broader market sentiment will pivot in that course, or whether or not greed will as an alternative set off fast exits into cease losses.
Bearish indicators mount as HODLer incentives erode
Bearish signals are stacking up, eroding the motivation to HODL Bitcoin.
For starters, large cash isn’t treating this “dip” as a chance but. Almost $3 billion has flowed out of BTC ETFs this month alone, with over 50% of that coming previously three days.
Because of this, that is displaying up in sentiment as effectively. On the Worry & Greed Index, a 6-point drop within the final 24 hours has pushed the index into “excessive concern” for the primary time in additional than seven months.
Supply: CoinMarketCap
Briefly, the motivation for STHs to carry and keep away from capitulation is fading.
Wanting on the knowledge, Bitcoin’s UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) exhibits the biggest provide stacked at $112k, accounting for two.97% of BTC’s circulating provide. Importantly, this represents the precise value foundation of STHs.
From a technical angle, that’s 592k BTC susceptible to being realized at a loss. On this context, with Bitcoin’s bid help weakening, excessive concern is more likely to proceed outweighing greed, paving the best way for a deeper This autumn correction.
