Key Takeaways
Has Bitcoin’s value appreciation stored up with the availability discount from halvings?
Sure, after which some. Bitcoin’s value progress has outpaced provide discount throughout all 5 halving epochs.
Are miners at present incomes kind of than miners in 2020?
Present miners incomes 3.125 BTC per block [$340,000] already make greater than 2020 miners who earned double the Bitcoin.
Bitcoin miners at present earn simply 3.125 BTC per block—93.75% lower than the 50 BTC they obtained in 2012. But they’re richer than ever.
This counterintuitive actuality reveals one among Bitcoin’s most fascinating financial options: much less BTC has constantly meant extra wealth.
The Bitcoin numbers inform the story
Historic information from Unchained exhibits a transparent sample throughout Bitcoin’s 5 halving epochs. Every epoch has ended with block rewards price extra in greenback phrases than when it began, regardless of miners receiving half the BTC halfway by means of.
Epoch 4 [2020-2024] demonstrates this completely. Miners began incomes 6.25 BTC per block price $54,000.
They ended the epoch incomes the identical 6.25 BTC, however price $398,000—a 637% improve. Bitcoin’s value appreciation utterly overwhelmed the availability discount.
Supply: Unchained
The present Epoch 5 continues this development. Block rewards began at $199,000 [3.125 BTC]. With Bitcoin now buying and selling round $109,000, those self same 3.125 BTC blocks are price roughly $340,000.
We’re solely months right into a four-year epoch, but block rewards have already jumped 71%.
This implies a miner at present incomes 3.125 BTC per block makes more cash than a 2020 miner who earned double the Bitcoin [6.25 BTC] at Epoch 4’s begin.
Why conventional economics will get Bitcoin incorrect
Normal shortage logic suggests slicing provide by 50% ought to minimize income by 50%. Bitcoin defies this. As a substitute, miners who survive the preliminary halving shock typically see income will increase of 300-600% by epoch’s finish.
This creates distinctive mining economics. When the halving hits, miners face a direct 50% income minimize.
Nonetheless, those that climate the storm sometimes change into extra worthwhile inside 12-18 months as BTC’s value adjusts to the brand new provide dynamics.
Miners are promoting regardless of file rewards
Current on-chain information provides an intriguing twist. Glassnode exhibits miners distributed Bitcoin at charges not seen for the reason that FTX collapse all through September and October 2025.
This heavy promoting occurred whereas miners earned essentially the most helpful block rewards in BTC’s historical past.
Supply: Glassnode
A number of elements clarify this: profit-taking after BTC examined $125,000, operational prices requiring fixed {hardware} upgrades, and publicly-traded mining corporations realizing positive aspects for shareholders.
The timing, simply earlier than Bitcoin’s correction from $125,000 to present ranges, suggests some miners efficiently timed a neighborhood high.
What comes subsequent
If patterns maintain, Epoch 5 might finish with block rewards exceeding $1 million per block, although miners obtain simply 3.125 BTC. This is able to require Bitcoin to succeed in $320,000 or increased by 2028.
The essential query is sustainability. Every halving requires larger value multiples to take care of the sample.
Epoch 2 wanted a 55x improve, Epoch 3 wanted 13.5x, and Epoch 4 wanted 7.4x. As BTC’s market cap grows, these multiples change into more durable to attain.
Nonetheless, rising institutional adoption, potential sovereign treasury purchases, and BTC’s maturing function as a retailer of worth might present the required demand for a number of extra epochs.
The underside line
Whereas miners earn 93.75% much less Bitcoin than in 2012, they’re incomes lots of of hundreds of {dollars} per block.
For fifteen years throughout 5 epochs, much less has meant extra in BTC. Whether or not this continues will depend on BTC’s means to maintain appreciating sooner than provide decreases—however to date, the paradox holds robust.
