Key takeaways:
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SOL recovered above $200, however weak onchain exercise and rising competitors restrict the chances of a sustainable rally.
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Merchants present little bearish conviction, but stagnant community progress and shifting market share hold SOL’s upside capped.
Solana’s native token SOL (SOL) climbed again above $200 on Tuesday, recovering from Friday’s flash crash that pushed costs right down to $167. Nonetheless, the document $1.73 billion in lengthy liquidations left an enduring mark on SOL’s derivatives market, prompting merchants to query whether or not the bullish momentum has light and if the token can realistically hit $300 this cycle.
Demand for leveraged bullish positions stays muted, because the perpetual futures funding price hovers round 0%. Below regular market circumstances, this indicator sometimes ranges between 6% and 12%, displaying that longs (consumers) are prepared to pay to take care of their publicity. Notably, SOL’s funding price earlier than Friday’s crash was round 4%, already under the impartial vary.
When the funding price turns damaging, it typically signifies that shorts (sellers) dominate, although this not often lasts lengthy as a consequence of the price of sustaining these bets. Even so, the continuing pressure in SOL’s derivatives market seemingly mirrors the broader harm Friday’s liquidations inflicted throughout the cryptocurrency sector.
Weak Solana community exercise amid elevated competitors
Solana’s onchain metrics reveal a persistent lack of bullish momentum, even with SOL buying and selling 31% under its $295 all-time high from January. Community exercise has struggled to regain traction for the reason that memecoin frenzy earlier in 2025, and the blockchain has additionally misplaced its lead in decentralized exchanges (DEXs) as new rivals achieve market share.
Decentralized purposes (DApps) on Solana generated $35.9 million in weekly income, whereas community charges totaled $6.5 million, marking a 35% drop from the earlier month. This slowdown weakens demand for SOL because the cost token for blockchain computation. Decrease exercise additionally reduces staking yields for SOL holders, including additional draw back stress.
In distinction, competing networks reminiscent of BNB Chain, Ethereum and Hyperliquid have seen their charges rise considerably, largely at Solana’s expense. BNB Chain’s spectacular $59.1 million in weekly charges highlights the success of four.meme, a memecoin launchpad platform totally built-in with Binance Pockets and positioned as a direct rival to Solana’s Pump.enjoyable.
Even when one assumes BNB Chain’s momentum is short-term, charges throughout the Ethereum ecosystem have surged. Layer-2 scaling networks reminiscent of Base, Arbitrum and Polygon every noticed weekly charges bounce by 40% or extra. Uniswap recorded its highest-ever weekly charges at $83.8 million, pushed largely by exercise on Ethereum and Base. In the meantime, Hyperliquid additionally benefited from Friday’s market volatility, posting a notable spike in buying and selling charges.
To gauge whether or not SOL merchants have turned bearish, it’s helpful to look at the stability between name (purchase) and put (promote) choices.
The SOL put-to-call quantity ratio on Deribit has remained under 90% for the previous week, signaling weak demand for impartial or bearish positions. Traditionally, when merchants count on a correction, this metric rises above 180%—a degree final reached on Sept. 20, following an 11-day, 26.7% rally in SOL’s value.
Associated: BNB Chain sees record user activity, transactions up 151% in 30 days
Whereas SOL’s derivatives metrics might have been distorted by the volatility from Friday’s flash crash, the continuing weak point in onchain exercise as rival blockchains achieve momentum is regarding. The rise of Aster, Hyperliquid and Uniswap has come straight on the expense of Solana’s upside potential.
Even when merchants aren’t explicitly bearish on SOL, it’s unlikely {that a} single occasion, such because the potential approval of spot Solana exchange-traded funds in america, could be sufficient to drive its value to $300 in the near term.
This text is for common info functions and isn’t supposed to be and shouldn’t be taken as authorized or funding recommendation. The views, ideas, and opinions expressed listed here are the creator’s alone and don’t essentially mirror or symbolize the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
