Key Takeaways
Why did BTC.D rise whilst Bitcoin fell?
Altcoins have been bleeding tougher than BTC, so capital rotated into Bitcoin as a relative safe-haven, pushing BTC dominance up 2.33% to 63%
May BTC drop again to $100k?
If the $110k flooring holds amid alt-to-BTC rotation, a slide to $100k appears to be like unlikely, although merchants ought to watch key divergences.
This week was a reminder that in crypto, timing is the whole lot.
On one hand, almost $20 billion in Bitcoin [BTC] positions acquired wiped, forcing many merchants to take heavy losses. However some got here out on prime. One whale, for instance, dropped a $735 million BTC quick and scored huge.
Actually, the transfer lined up so completely with macro FUD that merchants are speculating about “insider buying and selling,” exhibiting simply how key timing is. Which brings us to the large query: Is Bitcoin heading for a Q1-style breakdown?
Key BTC ranges crumble because the market relives Q1 FUD
Simply because the market appeared to be absorbing shocks, one other crash hit.
It nearly appeared just like the market had discovered to shrug off surprises; nonetheless, Bitcoin’s 7% drop to $109k on the tenth of October proved tariffs can nonetheless shake conviction and set off panic strikes.
On the charts, BTC erased all late September–early October positive factors, pulling again 13% from its $125k ATH. The $116k–$119k help zone broke, whilst short-term longs piled in heavy, flipping sentiment bearish in a flash.
Supply: TradingView (BTC/USDT)
In opposition to this setup, a Q1-style -11.8% BTC drop wouldn’t be out of line.
Again then, Trump dropped back-to-back 25% tariffs in February and March, then rolled out sweeping “reciprocal tariffs” in April. The fallout? BTC nuked 30%, marking its worst sell-off for the reason that 2022 bear market.
If historical past repeats, Bitcoin could possibly be its first crimson This autumn in two years. Actually, a dip again to $100k can be on the desk. That mentioned, a key divergence reveals it’d nonetheless be too early to name a full retreat.
Bitcoin slides whereas dominance spikes on altcoin sell-off
Regardless of the market-wide bleed, Bitcoin reclaimed over 60% market share.
Merely put, altcoins have been crushed tougher than BTC. Even on the dip, Bitcoin was nonetheless seen because the “safer wager,” which pushed Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) up 2.33% to 63%, bringing it again to early-August ranges.
The fallout? The Altcoin Season Index dumped 12 factors to 47, which means the market is just midway to a full-blown “Bitcoin Season.” This echoes Q1, when BTC.D peaked at 65%, organising a 30% rebound in Q2.
Supply: TradingView (BTC.D)
In brief, regardless of the sell-off, BTC stayed the go-to safe-haven.
If this divergence holds, $110k could possibly be forming a flooring as capital rotates out of “high-risk, high-reward” alts into Bitcoin, one thing price protecting a detailed eye on. On this context, a drop again to $100k turns into unlikely.
