Key takeaways:
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ETH ETFs have opened entry, however flows stay cyclical.
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SOL’s plumbing is ready: CME futures are stay, with choices slated for Oct. 13 (pending approval).
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The SEC’s generic requirements now permit sooner spot-commodity ETP listings past BTC and ETH.
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For SOL to outperform ETH, it should want sustained creations, tight hedging, actual onchain utilization and continued developer momentum.
It’s true that Ether (ETH) already has the top begin within the exchange-traded fund (ETF) race: Spot Ether ETFs started buying and selling on July 23, 2024, attracting approximately $107 million in first-day internet inflows and opening a mainstream path for traders by means of brokers and retirement accounts.
Nevertheless, Solana’s (SOL) market infrastructure is catching up. The Chicago Mercantile Alternate (CME) launched Solana futures on March 17, 2025, with options slated for Oct. 13.
In September 2025, the US Securities and Alternate Fee adopted “generic listing standards” that streamline how exchanges can record spot commodity exchange-traded merchandise (ETPs), probably widening the gate past Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether.
Additionally, outdoors the US, SOL already trades in regulated funding wrappers by means of Europe’s 21Shares and Canada’s 3iQ.
With that entry already in place, the query is whether or not a US SOL ETF can gasoline lasting demand that enables Solana to outperform Ether on each value and fundamentals.
Earlier than tackling that, let’s set the context.
What ETH ETFs modified, and what they didn’t
Spot Ether ETFs started buying and selling within the US on July 23, 2024. On the primary day, they recorded roughly $1 billion in buying and selling quantity and about $107 million in internet inflows, opening a mainstream channel for traders reminiscent of registered funding advisers (RIAs) and establishments. Nevertheless, this nonetheless trailed the dimensions of Bitcoin’s ETF debut in January.
Flows since then have been cyclical. By means of mid-2025, ETH skilled durations of internet creations punctuated by outflows. By late August and mid-September 2025, reviews confirmed renewed power, with multi-week inflows into Ether merchandise that lifted whole crypto property beneath administration (AUM). Briefly, ETFs improved entry, however they didn’t get rid of market cycles.
At occasions in 2025, Ether outperformed many large-cap crypto property, supported by regular ETF demand and visual institutional and treasury accumulation. This sample means that whereas ETFs don’t alter core community fundamentals, they will affect which asset leads throughout phases of capital rotation.
One design alternative nonetheless issues: US ETH ETFs launched without staking, limiting their revenue potential in contrast with holding native ETH straight. The SEC is actively reviewing proposals to permit staking, however, as of October 2025, has delayed decisions across multiple issuers. If staking is permitted — even partially — it may shift the trade-offs between ETF holdings and direct possession.
Do you know? US exchanges publish an indicative internet asset worth (iNAV) roughly each 15 seconds, permitting merchants to see the place an ETF needs to be priced intraday.
Solana right this moment: Utilization, development and dangers
In Q2 2025, Solana generated over $271 million in community income, marking its third consecutive quarter main all layer-1 (L1) and layer-2 (L2) chains. In June, information confirmed Solana matched the mixed month-to-month energetic addresses of all different main L1s and L2s — sturdy indicators of utilization depth.
In January 2025, Solana processed $59.2 billion in peer-to-peer (P2P) stablecoin transfers, a pointy rebound from the lows of late 2024. The provision of USDC on Solana stands at roughly $9.35 billion, whereas the community’s whole stablecoin provide greater than doubled in early 2025, climbing from $5.2 billion in January to $11.7 billion in February.
Even so, Ethereum nonetheless carried nearly all of worth moved by stablecoins year-to-date — roughly 60% as of mid-2025 — exhibiting Solana’s positive factors are significant however not but dominant.
Price and pace stay key attracts: Sub-cent charges, 400-millisecond block occasions and excessive throughput have made Solana a hub for decentralized trade (DEX) and perpetual futures exercise — and a focus of 2025’s memecoin increase. That quantity helps liquidity but additionally concentrates flows in speculative segments.
Two structural dangers are price watching.
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Reliability: A five-hour outage on Feb. 6, 2024, required a coordinated restart and shopper patch (v1.17.20).
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Regulation: Previous US SEC complaints have referenced Solana as an unregistered safety — a characterization the Solana Basis disputes. Outcomes on this space stay extremely policy-dependent.
Do you know? CME plans daily, monthly and quarterly expiries for SOL options, increasing hedging menus for ETF market makers.
What a US SOL ETF would doubtless change
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Entry and flows: Approval would open SOL to mainstream brokerage and retirement channels utilized by registered investment advisers (RIAs). That reduces operational friction for allocators and broadens the client base past crypto-native venues.
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Market-making and hedging: Listed derivatives give approved individuals (APs) and market makers the instruments to hedge creations and redemptions, in addition to to run foundation or relative-value trades. These mechanics assist hold ETF costs near their NAV and assist day-one liquidity.
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Regulatory runway: The SEC’s “generic itemizing requirements” widen the trail past BTC and ETH if sponsors fulfill the foundations.
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Ex-US demand indicators: Already, Canada’s 3iQ Solana Staking ETF (TSX: SOLQ) and Europe’s 21Shares Solana Staking ETP (SIX: ASOL) present that regulated funding wrappers for Solana can entice investor curiosity.
Do you know? In Europe, cryptocurrencies can’t be included in Undertakings for Collective Funding in Transferable Securities (UCITS) ETFs, so issuers use ETPs as a substitute. That’s the reason “ETP” seems on SIX and London Inventory Alternate (LSE) tickers.
Can SOL really outperform ETH?
The bull case (six to 12 months post-approval)
A well timed US spot SOL ETF with sturdy early internet creations may outpace Ether on whole return.
Two key levers:
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Broader entry: RIAs and brokerages achieve publicity beneath the brand new generic itemizing requirements.
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Improved market mechanics: Tighter spreads and better capability as APs hedge through CME Solana futures and listed choices.
The bottom case
Even when a SOL ETF launches strongly, flows might revert to monitoring normal threat urge for food. Ether retains a structural institutional edge — due to its longer historical past, deeper allocator familiarity and established ecosystem. Weekly fund movement fluctuations in crypto replicate how relative efficiency could also be uneven relatively than decisively tilted towards SOL.
The bear case
Timelines slipping or eligibility questions beneath the US SEC framework may dampen expectations. Alternatively, liquidity might soften, and APs may run smaller books regardless of the supply of derivatives, limiting creations. In that situation, Solana would underperform Ether, which already advantages from a extra mature distribution.
Additionally it is price noting that some regulators have expressed considerations about lowered case-by-case scrutiny beneath the generic itemizing requirements, including coverage uncertainty for property past Bitcoin and Ether.
What to keep watch over
If a US spot SOL ETF is authorized, the true story may very well be what occurs subsequent.
The important thing indicators to look at are simple. Do creations and redemptions present persistent demand? Does CME open curiosity and choices exercise deepen liquidity? Do onchain metrics like energetic customers, payment income, stablecoin settlement and developer development maintain up past speculative bursts? If these needles transfer collectively, the percentages of SOL outpacing ETH rise sharply.
A Solana ETF would remove a major access bottleneck and arrive with stronger market infrastructure than previous cycles. But Ether has already confirmed it could actually entice billions by means of ETFs whereas anchoring the institutional dialog.
ETH stays the benchmark, and its flows — although cyclical — exhibit its endurance. Whether or not Solana actually outperforms will rely much less on hype and extra on whether or not ETF inflows translate into sustained onchain adoption.
This text doesn’t comprise funding recommendation or suggestions. Each funding and buying and selling transfer entails threat, and readers ought to conduct their very own analysis when making a call.
