Key takeaways:
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Bitcoin’s weekly stochastic RSI has triggered its ninth bullish sign this cycle.
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Analysts see potential upside towards $155,000–$200,000 if historical past repeats.
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Quick-term liquidity pressures and the FOMC choice might drive BTC worth volatility.
Bitcoin (BTC) continues to consolidate above $115,000 as merchants brace for the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) rate of interest choice on Wednesday. The quick resistance for BTC stays between $117,000 and $118,000, and a breakout above this degree might sign a significant structural shift on larger timeframe charts.
Market optimism has been fueled by technical indicators. Crypto investor Jelle points out that the weekly stochastic relative energy index (RSI) has as soon as once more turned bullish, a improvement that has occurred 9 instances beforehand within the present cycle. On common, every of those crossovers has triggered a 35% rally, which, if repeated, would lead Bitcoin towards $155,000.
In the meantime, Bitcoin community economist Timothy Peterson argues that whereas he’s not a believer in chart-based technical evaluation, repeating cycle patterns provide a powerful roadmap. Peterson’s mannequin means that Bitcoin might attain $200,000 inside 170 days, giving such an consequence higher than even odds.
Nevertheless, short-term worth motion stays clouded with warning. Analyst Skew highlighted that new ask-bid liquidity (short-positioned) has clustered close to $116,000, describing it as the present “consensus commerce” forward of the Fed choice.
Skew stated that persistent provide and offloading into rallies present the market stays top-heavy, and warns that this setup could also be the results of market maker manipulation fairly than natural positioning.
Related: Bitcoin eyes long liquidations as gold passes $3.7K for first time
Markets are break up on Bitcoin’s longer-term prospects
The broader market narrative reveals a divide or thought amongst merchants. Regardless of expectations of as much as three rate of interest cuts later this yr, Information from CryptoQuant discovered that eight of ten bull market indicators have already turned bearish, reflecting cooling momentum. That being stated, some merchants imagine the macroeconomic backdrop nonetheless favors Bitcoin.
🚨 ALERT: 8 out of 10 Bitcoin bull market indicators have turned bearish, with “momentum clearly cooling,” in response to a CryptoQuant analyst. pic.twitter.com/2ioC1b5Oxb
— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) September 12, 2025
RookieXBT emphasized that the greenback Index sits at 15-year help, whereas equities and commodities sign energy because the S&P 500 has rallied 12% this yr to new highs, and gold is up 40% in 2025 after years of stagnation.
Towards this backdrop, the dealer stated that threat belongings like Bitcoin might proceed benefiting from liquidity progress and financial enlargement.
Onchain indicators additionally lean supportive. Based on dealer Darkfost, short-term holder whales are back in profit after defending the $108,000 to $109,000 zone earlier this month. Comparable defenses up to now have typically set the stage for a bullish rally, as recognized in March and April 2025.
With Bitcoin buying and selling simply 8% under its all-time excessive, the market sits at a crossroads. Whether or not the newest RSI sign delivers one other cycle-defining rally or whether or not macro headwinds cap momentum, the end result of this week’s FOMC choice may very well be decisive.
Related: Bitcoin’s illiquid supply could hit 8.3M by 2032: Fidelity
This text doesn’t include funding recommendation or suggestions. Each funding and buying and selling transfer includes threat, and readers ought to conduct their very own analysis when making a choice.
