Key takeaways:
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Bitcoin bulls intention to push BTC above $110,000 by Might 30 to capitalize on $4.8 billion in name choices.
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Spot BTC ETF inflows and weak put positioning give bulls a robust edge within the month-to-month expiry.
Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching its largest month-to-month options expiry of 2025, with whole publicity reaching $13.8 billion. This occasion offers bulls an opportunity to safe Bitcoin’s worth above $110,000, as bears had been caught off guard by a 25% rally over the previous 30 days.
The open curiosity in Bitcoin put (promote) choices stands at $6.5 billion, however 95% of those positions are set beneath $109,000. Due to this fact, if Bitcoin’s worth holds close to present ranges, lower than $350 million price of put choices will stay related at expiry.
Conversely, the open curiosity in Bitcoin name (purchase) choices as much as $109,000 totals $3.8 billion. Nonetheless, this imbalance doesn’t imply each name possibility holder was betting on Bitcoin’s rise. Some merchants could have offered these choices as a solution to hedge their exposure above sure worth ranges.
Among the many most vital possibility methods traded at Deribit up to now two weeks is the “brief name,” which is commonly utilized by buyers looking for a fixed-income return so long as Bitcoin’s worth stays above a specific threshold. Equally, the “bull name unfold” technique hedges in opposition to draw back danger by sacrificing beneficial properties above a sure worth.
Robust Bitcoin ETF inflows scale back the percentages of additional worth decline
If Bitcoin maintains the $109,000 degree, most bullish methods ought to ship optimistic ends in the Might choices expiry. Nonetheless, bears could attempt to affect BTC futures markets to restrict their losses because the expiry date approaches.
The full open curiosity in Bitcoin futures is at the moment $79 billion, exhibiting sturdy demand for short (sell) positions. Nonetheless, this technique may backfire if Bitcoin rises above $110,000, as bears may be compelled to shut their positions.
Net inflows of $1.9 billion into US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) between Might 20 and Might 22 point out that demand above $105,000 stays strong. In the end, bears’ principal hope lies in a weaker macroeconomic setting, which may enhance danger aversion and scale back demand for Bitcoin.
Associated: Bitcoin hits new highs in the absence of ‘unhealthy’ leverage use — Will the rally continue?
Bitcoin bulls intention for $110,000 by Might 30
Under are 4 possible situations primarily based on present worth traits. These outcomes estimate theoretical earnings primarily based on open curiosity imbalances and don’t account for complicated methods.
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Between $102k and $105k: $2.75 billion in calls (purchase) vs. $900 million in places (promote). The web consequence favors the decision devices by $1.85 billion.
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Between $105k and $107k: $3.3 billion calls vs. $650 million places, favoring calls by $2.65 billion.
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Between $107k and $110k: $3.7 billion calls vs. $350 million places, favoring calls by $3.35 billion.
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Between $110k and $114k: $4.8 billion calls vs. $120 million places, favoring calls by $4.7 billion.
Bulls can maximize their beneficial properties by driving BTC above $110,000, which may assist set a brand new all-time excessive. Nonetheless, the continuing bullish momentum relies on developments within the ongoing tariff struggle, which has been a key focus in latest weeks.
This text is for normal data functions and isn’t supposed to be and shouldn’t be taken as authorized or funding recommendation. The views, ideas, and opinions expressed listed below are the creator’s alone and don’t essentially mirror or signify the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
